Is New Hampshire really that important?

I promised a myriad of things on this blog. Today it is politics.

If you pay attention to the news – for what now seems like forever - you have been inundated with coverage from the first two states to cast the official opinions on the candidates running for the US presidential helm. The coverage has been stifling and prompted me to ask the question “How important are the initial primaries”? Do they go along way in determining the eventual president or even the party front runner? I wanted to find out if they represent what America as a whole is thinking on the subject.

I will start with the New Hampshire Democratic primaries. The winners from 1960 are as follows: Kennedy, LBJ(incumbent) , LbJ, (Incumbent), Muskie, Carter, Carter(incumbent), Hart, Dukasis, Tsongas, Clinton(incumbent), Gore, and finally, Kerry. Out of the twelve Democratic Primaries, only three times did the person who won the race not go on to represent the Democratic party in the November Election. As for the Republican, the primary winners since 1960 are as follows: Nixon, Lodge Jr., Nixon, Nixon (incumbent) , Ford (incumbent), Reagan, Reagan (Incumbent), Bush, Bush (Incumbent), Buchanan, McCain, and Bush(Incumbent). The same results though different years where the winner of the Republican New Hampshire primary did not go on to represent in the November general election.

Even if you were to take out the primaries with incumbents for both parties, there is a decent chance the representatives who win on Tuesday will go on to represent their party. The one drawback is there are plenty of people running on making the winner by number s only and future primaries more important as the numbers dwindle down the competitors.

The point for this entry is discussing the endless coverage that has taken place leading up to voting on Tuesday. Is it warranted? Does it have any value?

The other question I have as I looked at the result from the internet and they posted the month and date forecast year votes – Why is it SO early this year? How much I wish we were like Great Britain who could spontaneously call a election and it would take place six weeks later.